Just 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. When Rogers swept in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their opening six games, find themselves only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard query to address. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have accumulated.
As per the data, in only two games has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with some precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United had more efforts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the football into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the performer he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
